It was refreshing to present at some conferences IRL recently (SoERC and Cigre). My slides – on the ANU research on accommodating electrification demand growth into the side capacity of the distribution network – are now on the Australian Policy Online (this is a great initiative and treasure trove – check it out!). https://apo.org.au/node/331066
This podcast discussion is another good summary of the take home messages:
as is their write up:
Good CER policy depends on good (transparent, open source) analysis, which depends on good (open source) data. Here is data set of 100 Canberra properties, including their power demand, solar generation and battery operation. This has been foundational to much of the analysis I conducted at ANU, and I hope make others will find many other uses for it.
“it is vital that before we build more network, we use more network” – AER Chair, Clare Savage
Electrification and population growth will both drive significant increases in electricity demand over the coming decades. This study investigates how the effect of this growth on zone substations could be mitigated by scheduling water heating and electric vehicle charging to occur during solar hours and overnight.
Taking the ACT as a case study, we find that the complete electrification of water heating and private vehicles, together with population growth would drive a large increase in total demand. By 2045 – when the ACT Government plans to get off gas – the increase is on the order of 75% for high growth regions such as Gungahlin. 30% is due to population growth and 45% from vehicle electrification. The electrification of water heating is compensated for by the efficiency of heat pump hot water systems, which we assume make up 75% of heaters in 2045.
We find that the super simple approach of scheduling water heating and vehicle charging loads to occur at fixed hours each day throughout a year effectively avoids these appliances contributing to peak demand on zone substations. Modeled zone substation demand continues to peak on winter evenings due to other loads (significantly space heating in the cold Canberra climate), which we model to be inflexible.
It concludes that simple strategic policies that shift loads into low demand periods would enable significant growth in total demand to be accommodated within existing zone substation capacity limits. For example, in the suburb of Gungahlin, such measures could limit peak demand increases to just 25%, while all private vehicles and domestic hot water are electrified, and the population grows by 30%.
For the avoidance of doubt, the study does not purport to predict how demand growth and demand scheduling will develop, but to provide quantified, plausible scenarios of how they could develop to motivate and guide policy and public initiatives.
Noting that zone substations are only one link in the electricity grid, three goals stand out:
Conference presentation and full report below
Continue readingIMHO, the energy system has 2 goals:
• Efficiency – minimizing total economic & ecological costs
• Equity – human wellbeing, individually and collectively
The (Nobel prize earning) Tinbergen rule stipulates that each of these goals requires its own policy instrument. Relying on 1 market price – to efficiently manage EV charging without inequitable punishing parents for cooking at 6pm – flies in the face of this.
So, what can be done? Late last year I had the privilege to speak my mind about this problem and potential solutions (spoiler: separating energy demand into an essential and a flexible component – which could just be EVs to start with) as part of a Victorian Council of Social Service event and in a presentation to the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) economic research team.
The first preso was recorded
Slides and here
And context of the VCOSS project is https://vcoss.org.au/projects/2024/01/energy-health-nexus/
This essay was first published in Australian Quarterly 95.3, Australia’s Longest running public affairs magazine, published by Australian Institute for Policy and Science https://aips.net.au/aq-magazine/current-edition/
Within the energy industry there is a popular, feel-good refrain that the energy transition will deliver a system that is ‘democratised’, in addition to being ‘decarbonised’, ‘digitised’, and ‘decentralised’. Here democratised is used as an umbrella term for a broad suite of desirable values: fair, just, equitable. Yet the way in which democratisation is envisioned to occur is, in contrast, blinkered – households are seen to gain political power as a consequence of their generating and controlling electrical power from rooftop solar, batteries, and electric vehicles – but what about those without?
This prevailing narrative of democratisation overlooks, amongst other things, the connection between privilege and ownership of these technologies, and the structural realities of social, as well as techno-economic, power. In particular, it ignores the systemic effects of managing energy through markets and, consequently, ignoring energy’s role as an essential service underpinning modern life.
The starting point of this essay is that the energy transition is not on track to improve equity. This is because equity will only be improved if it is prioritised above competing values, such as profit, in the millions of design choices that constitute the transition.
Such prioritisation is impossible within the existing (artificially) constrained policy landscape, in which the only options are those within the framework of indistinguishable individuals interacting through a market. This eliminates any space for unequal redistribution in recognition of the differing circumstances within the collective, and thereby contributions towards equity.
Progress towards equity rests on expanding the policy imagination. This essay offers one such suggestion: the establishment of a Basic Energy Right that provides all households with a modest amount of energy free of charge to meet their essential needs.
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There once was a bean farmer called P. For years, he’d supplied his local shops and cafes with tasty black beans. But then along came a new farmer whose green beans were much cheaper, and what’s more didn’t make people fart.
Everyone in town was excited to switch to these new cheap fart-free green beans. Farmer P was facing ruin.
So P decided to remind everyone that there was also a third type of bean that they should consider. This is an exotic purple bean that no local had ever tried.
Now P knew that these pink beans were expensive, hard to grow, and were suspected of making people’s hair fall out. No customers was going to choose the pink beans over the cheap, clean green beans.
But by making his customers spend time researching these pink beans P hoped to sell them another season or two of his old familiar black beans.
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Inspired by question from students at Cringila Public School as part of a DeadlyScience session | Image from deepai.org
Delighted to be on RenewEconomy & Boundless Earth SwitchedOn podcast kicking off a discussion of how to *truly* improve energy equity https://reneweconomy.com.au/switchedon-podcast-free-electricity-to-cover-essential-needs/
“A popular refrain of the renewable energy transition is it will deliver an energy system that is more democratic, as well as decarbonised. That the political power of generating energy will shift from big power companies to households, as a result of us being able to generate and control electrical power from our rooftop solar, batteries, electric vehicles, etc.
But this decentralised, democratic narrative isn’t a foregone conclusion…”
An interesting conversation about the ever growing amount of rooftop solar and the journey of EVs.
This correspondence was originally published in the June 2023 edition of the Quarterly Essay, in response to the March 2023 edition by Saul Griffith.
While the pivotal role of electrification in decarbonisation has been understood for decades, it has rarely been described as vividly or enthusiastically as by Saul Griffith in The Wires That Bind. Griffith recognises that electrification is a story, at its heart, not about decarbonisation but about cleaning the air in our kitchens and streets, improving the liveability of our homes and communities, and “keeping wealth in our households and communities” – and nation. In short, electrification is a story about a better future.
While attuned to this human story of electrification, Griffith is, at heart, an engineer so it’s no surprise that The Wires That Bind is packed full of figures. Emissions are carved up, the grid is mapped and fossil machines are counted. This achieves Griffith’s goal of “clarity about the job in front of us” and complements his persuasive case for electrifying everything. The question that remains is: how can the transition best be accelerated and steered towards just and enduring outcomes?
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Also summarised in this article in The Conversation