Posts Tagged → industry

PM’s Prizes for Science

It was an honour to attend the PM’s Prizes for Science, particularly with the inaugural PM Prize for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Knowledge Systems.

A few lines from Anthony Albanese really stood out to me:

“the work that you do lasts through generations.”

“Over the span of thousands of generations, First Nations’ Australians have cultivated a unique connection to this land.
To its ecosystems, its skies and its waterways.
An intimate wisdom, passed on through deep time.
Through this connection Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people have created their own detailed knowledge of meteorology, astronomy, horticulture, biology.
For the longest time, much of this knowledge went unseen and unconsidered by mainstream science.
Yet, just as embracing the world’s oldest continuous culture has enriched our understanding of our history.
Understanding Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander science allows us to see things we might otherwise have missed.
Shedding new light on problems, making fresh connections across disciplines and deepening our collective knowledge of our home continent, and the world around us.
This is surely what lies at the heart of science.”

Household energy data

Good CER policy depends on good (transparent, open source) analysis, which depends on good (open source) data. Here is data set of 100 Canberra properties, including their power demand, solar generation and battery operation. This has been foundational to much of the analysis I conducted at ANU, and I hope make others will find many other uses for it.

https://zenodo.org/records/14885589

The opportunities to flex water heating and electric vehicle charging loads in the ACT

“it is vital that before we build more network, we use more network” – AER Chair, Clare Savage

Electrification and population growth will both drive significant increases in electricity demand over the coming decades. This study investigates how the effect of this growth on zone substations could be mitigated by scheduling water heating and electric vehicle charging to occur during solar hours and overnight.

Taking the ACT as a case study, we find that the complete electrification of water heating and private vehicles, together with population growth would drive a large increase in total demand. By 2045 – when the ACT Government plans to get off gas – the increase is on the order of 75% for high growth regions such as Gungahlin. 30% is due to population growth and 45% from vehicle electrification. The electrification of water heating is compensated for by the efficiency of heat pump hot water systems, which we assume make up 75% of heaters in 2045.

We find that the super simple approach of scheduling water heating and vehicle charging loads to occur at fixed hours each day throughout a year effectively avoids these appliances contributing to peak demand on zone substations. Modeled zone substation demand continues to peak on winter evenings due to other loads (significantly space heating in the cold Canberra climate), which we model to be inflexible.

It concludes that simple strategic policies that shift loads into low demand periods would enable significant growth in total demand to be accommodated within existing zone substation capacity limits. For example, in the suburb of Gungahlin, such measures could limit peak demand increases to just 25%, while all private vehicles and domestic hot water are electrified, and the population grows by 30%.

For the avoidance of doubt, the study does not purport to predict how demand growth and demand scheduling will develop, but to provide quantified, plausible scenarios of how they could develop to motivate and guide policy and public initiatives.

Noting that zone substations are only one link in the electricity grid, three goals stand out:

  1. Realising the tremendous opportunities to schedule/flex electrified demand, even with simple and suboptimal approaches.
  2. Reducing winter evening demand, such as through better housing insulation & efficiency.
  3. Building frameworks to develop and drive uptake of services that more dynamicly optimise the power consumption of appliances. These must foreground free, prior, and informed consent and could harness the literature on responsible innovation.

Conference presentation and full report below

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Vehicle-to-grid response to a frequency contingency in a national grid

A paper published in npj Sustainable Mobility and Transport analysing the vehicle-to-grid response to a major grid disturbance in the Australian grid.

Abstract

Vehicle-to-grid technology enables electric vehicles to contribute their large, high-power batteries to power systems reserves. Here we report the first demonstration of a fleet of vehicles discharging to support system security after a frequency contingency in a national grid. Our results highlight the potential of vehicle-to-grid, with vehicles discharging within 6 s of the contingency event, and shortcomings, with vehicles recommencing charging before the power system had fully recovered.

Full paper below

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Presentation: Watt price equity?

IMHO, the energy system has 2 goals:
• Efficiency – minimizing total economic & ecological costs
• Equity – human wellbeing, individually and collectively

The (Nobel prize earning) Tinbergen rule stipulates that each of these goals requires its own policy instrument. Relying on 1 market price – to efficiently manage EV charging without inequitable punishing parents for cooking at 6pm – flies in the face of this.

So, what can be done? Late last year I had the privilege to speak my mind about this problem and potential solutions (spoiler: separating energy demand into an essential and a flexible component – which could just be EVs to start with) as part of a Victorian Council of Social Service event and in a presentation to the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) economic research team.

The first preso was recorded

Slides and here

202411-Sturmberg-Energy_equityDownload

And context of the VCOSS project is https://vcoss.org.au/projects/2024/01/energy-health-nexus/

Flat fees for flexible EVs

This study builds upon the recently published Unplugged is inflexible report to explore one avenue by which EV drivers could be incentivised to: 

  1. plug their EVs in for extended durations, and  
  1. permit their vehicles to be charged flexibly.  

While there are many avenues by which this could be done, we here explore the potential for EV drivers to be offered very simple, flat retail offers based solely on how often they plug in their EVs and how much energy their EV consumes. This approach entirely removes considerations of when in the day vehicles are plugged in, which lightens the mental burden on drivers and may contribute to greater acceptance of managed charging. 

This concept is motivated by the belief that creating price-certainty, and ideally cost-certainty, is a core way in which electricity retailers create value for their customers. This EV charging arrangement engages customers (EV drivers) is a quid pro quo where retailers contribute their expertise and diversity of customers to manage pricing risk, and EV drivers contribute the flexibility of their charging demand. 

Our modelling shows that doubling the amount of time EVs are plugged in for reduces the cost of charging by half. To be clear, this requires nothing of EV drivers other than having their EV connected to a charger for longer periods, which enables more flexibly charging behaviour. 

To quantify the risk for retailers we conduct a statistical analysis in terms of the cost of EV charging per day or per kWh. This suggests that offering a fixed price per day may go beyond retailers’ risk appetite, making a fixed price per kWh the more attractive option. This is likely also fairer for customers as it charges for the precise amount of energy used. 

The addition of vehicle-to-grid increases the benefits of longer plug-in times by facilitating market arbitrage. Vehicles that are driven less than 40km per day and are plugged in to chargers for more than 8 hours a day (with vehicle-to-grid) can, on average, be charged at zero or negative cost. 

While outside of the scope of this study, we note that this same tariff concept (and simulation model) could be applied matching flexible EV charging with the generation of a collection of wind or solar farms. This would provide another way for a retailer to manage/fix their price exposure while simultaneously creating value for customers by charging vehicles with zero emissions power. 

Full report below

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Watt equity? Australians deserve a Basic Energy Right

This essay was first published in Australian Quarterly 95.3, Australia’s Longest running public affairs magazine, published by Australian Institute for Policy and Science https://aips.net.au/aq-magazine/current-edition/

AQ-95.3-JUL-SEP-2024-Watt-EquityDownload

Within the energy industry there is a popular, feel-good refrain that the energy transition will deliver a system that is ‘democratised’, in addition to being ‘decarbonised’, ‘digitised’, and ‘decentralised’. Here democratised is used as an umbrella term for a broad suite of desirable values: fair, just, equitable. Yet the way in which democratisation is envisioned to occur is, in contrast, blinkered – households are seen to gain political power as a consequence of their generating and controlling electrical power from rooftop solar, batteries, and electric vehicles – but what about those without?

This prevailing narrative of democratisation overlooks, amongst other things, the connection between privilege and ownership of these technologies, and the structural realities of social, as well as techno-economic, power. In particular, it ignores the systemic effects of managing energy through markets and, consequently, ignoring energy’s role as an essential service underpinning modern life.

The starting point of this essay is that the energy transition is not on track to improve equity. This is because equity will only be improved if it is prioritised above competing values, such as profit, in the millions of design choices that constitute the transition.

Such prioritisation is impossible within the existing (artificially) constrained policy landscape, in which the only options are those within the framework of indistinguishable individuals interacting through a market. This eliminates any space for unequal redistribution in recognition of the differing circumstances within the collective, and thereby contributions towards equity.

Progress towards equity rests on expanding the policy imagination. This essay offers one such suggestion: the establishment of a Basic Energy Right that provides all households with a modest amount of energy free of charge to meet their essential needs.

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Ignore variability, overestimate hydrogen production – Quantifying the effects of electrolyzer efficiency curves on hydrogen production from renewable energy sources

In this new paper with Dan Virah-Sawmy and Fiona J Beck we show that neglecting the variable electrolyzer efficiency, as is commonly done in studies of green hydrogen, leads to significant overestimation of hydrogen production in the range of 5–24%

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360319924020676

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of including (or neglecting) the variable efficiency of hydrogen electrolyzers as a function of operating power in the modelling of green hydrogen produced from variable renewable energy sources. Results show that neglecting the variable electrolyzer efficiency, as is commonly done in studies of green hydrogen, leads to significant overestimation of hydrogen production in the range of 5–24%. The effects of the time resolution used in models are also investigated, as well as the impact of including the option for the electrolyzer to switch to stand-by mode instead of powering down and electrolyzer ramp rate constraints. Results indicate that these have a minor effect on overall hydrogen production, with the use of hour resolution data leading to overestimation in the range of 0.2–2%, relative to using 5-min data. This study used data from three solar farms and three wind in Australia, from which it is observed that wind farms produced 55% more hydrogen than the solar farms. The results in this study highlight the critical importance of including the variable efficiency of electrolyzers in the modelling of green hydrogen production. As this industry scales, continuing to neglect this effect would lead to the overestimation of hydrogen production by tens of megatonnes.

Australian vehicle-to-grid expert says research shows even greater benefits are possible

Dr Björn Sturmberg, who is the research leader of ANU’s Battery Storage and Grid Integration Program says vehicle-to-grid offers multifaceted solutions to Australia’s energy woes including reduced prices and increased grid resilience. Sturmberg thinks EV owners can get an even better deal than free charging when it comes to V2G.

“The opportunities for V2G to generate revenue in Australia are significant, due in no small part to the volatility of an electricity market with concentrated market power and aging fossil fuel generators as illustrated earlier this week in Victoria.” said Sturmberg.

On Wednesday after storms in Victoria cut transmission lines leaving 500,000 households without power, wholesale electricity prices spiked as high as $16,600/MWh.

Sturmberg thinks that V2G has the potential to provide a lot more financial benefit than free charging to EV owners.

“Our research shows that the potential income from V2G will in many cases far exceed the cost of EV charging, meaning drivers ought to receive more than just free charging.”

He also believes EV owners should be incentivised to keep their vehicles connected as much as possible.

“For the grid – and thereby for the reliability and affordability of all Australian’s electricity supply – the most important aspect of EV usage is that EVs are plugged in to chargers (or a regular power outlet) as often as possible,” he says.

“This provides the greatest flexibility in their charging, to reduce the cost of electricity generation as well as, critically, the costs of network maintenance and emissions. This requires a shift in drivers’ behaviours, to habitually plug in their EVs whenever parked.”

Sturmberg says he wants to see innovation and trials of tariffs that provide incentives for every minute that EVs are plugged in and available for managed (‘smart’) charging and says this has the potential to be very effective even before including V2G.

On the impacts of V2G to EV battery life Stumberg thinks provided systems are well managed, there’s no need for concerns around battery degradation.

“The impact of V2G (and driving) on batteries is primarily determined by the state of charge of the battery and the rate at which power is injected or drawn out of the battery,” says Sturmberg.

“Well managed V2G, that keeps the state of charge of vehicles within batteries’ comfort zone (generally 30-80%), will have a very modest impact – and in some studies has been shown to improve battery health compared to unmanaged charging by reducing the amount of time that batteries are at a very high state of charge.”

Full story https://thedriven.io/2024/02/16/costs-down-resilience-up-first-vehicle-to-grid-tariff-to-save-drivers-1640-per-year/